If you are like most people, just watching the news lately is stressful. The unemployement rate seems to be climbing and seems to be exacerbating the already bad housing market. A dangerous cycle seems to be going on in rising unemployment rates, rising foreclosures, and falling home prices.
I bought my first home back in the Spring of 2004 and I see some of the houses I looked at for sale now for less than the 2004 asking prices. Several of these homes have had substantial renovations done and look fantastic. I keep wondering did the bottom fall out already or is the worse still to come?
Business Week published a Housing Report (June 2009) which states that the housing market may not recover until 2012. This article states how the U.S. National Home Price Index will fall about 16% this year before regaining ground. The Gross Domestic Product is expected to shrink this year by 3%, grow 1.4% next year, and increase 4.7% in 2011 and finally reach an increase of 5.8% in 2012.
So, it looks like the end is somewhat near. This may be a good time for those first-time home buyer's (with excellent credit) to go out and buy their first home. Hopefully, some of the Obama Stimulus money will help create those much needed jobs for everyone who is out and work and we will see an increase in local job growth.
I am glad to know that the forecast for next year should be brighter as the gross domestic product (our ecomony's economic performance measurement tool) starts to rebound. Hopefully, the housing market will not be too far behind. I think we are all ready for a positive turn, so hang in there everybody - we have almost made it out of the storm!
I hope buyers sitting on the fence will buy soon and take advantage of the low prices.
Jobs, jobs, jobs and more jobs.
Without a job, homeownership is a pipedream! Even with the highest confidence, a jobless consumer is down and out!
YES, WE DEFINITELY NEED JOBS...AND THIS IS GOING TO TAKE TIME AS UNEMPLOYMENT FIGURES CONTINUE TO SAG....IT'S GOING TO BE A VERY SLOW RECOVERY...........WHEN IT HAPPENS!! AND THE BANKS AREN'T LENDING EITHER!!
Thanks for all your kind words. I agree that more jobs are definitely what we need.
obama is the biggest threat to the recovery. The economy WILL recover inspite of him. Interest rates are dependent on having US bonds (debt) purchased. Already China, Japan, Germany, France and others have expressed concern about obama's irresponsible spending. When US debt is in question and over supply interest rates go UP to create demand. High interest rates are a drag on the entrire economy. The one with big ears must have had ear muffs on during 6th grade economics
Companies with high interest rates or are unable to afford loans will not be creating jobs. Every obama program has had the effect of sending jobs and companies overseas.
The answer is meaningless. The only person that will buy at the bottom will be from pure luck. The point is pretty simple. We are in a down market, right? Do we buy high and sell low or do we buy low and sell high? Is the market low?
End of story.........
Tim,
I am sure most people will agree with you that the time you buy your home is based on luck. Of course people would rather buy low and sell high :-)
Thanks, Kate
The housing recovery is basically a lagging indicator. This is because that the economy will recover in this order: 1. lower taxes on businesses and individuals create profits and more jobs, not the stimulus 2. Government receives more money from these profits, lowering the deficit 3. Unemployment goes down, revenues go up, and at this point the housing market improves, including less foreclosures. These steps are the only way that works, but the President and Congress don't seem to get it. If the housing market improves by 2012, it'll be because there is new leadership in Washington.
The houses that are selling, at least here in Florida, are the ones that are priced about where they sold for at the end of the 1990's. People are still insisting that there homes are worth 200,000 when in actuality they won't sell for more than 85,000. I don't think the market will start to recoup soon, and when it does it will start, say at 85,000 and grow at maybe 5% a year, like it always has. The economy has to recover substantially before this even starts happening. The foreclosures are not even selling very quickly. Who really knows, I hope I'm wrong, what do you think?
Does your office still do weekly tours of houses you have listed?